A Tale of Two Elections
By Justice Markandey Katju
India and Pakistan are both going to have national parliamentary elections soon. The results in both countries can be safely predicted : Prime Minister Modi's BJP will win a massive victory in India, and Modi will become the PM for a 3rd time. In Pakistan, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's PMLN, in coalition with Bilawal Bhutto's PPP, will win a majority in parliament in Pakistan, and Nawaz Sharif will become the PM for a 4th time.
We may consider India and Pakistan separately
1. India
In India, parliamentary politics runs largely on the basis of caste and communal vote banks ( as everyone in India knows ).
When most people in India go to vote they do not see the merits of the candidate, whether he is a good man or bad, educated or ignorant, etc. They forget the massive poverty, record unemployment, appalling level of child malnourishment, skyrocketing rise in prices of essential commodities like food, almost total lack of healthcare for the masses, etc. They only see the candidate's caste or religion, or the caste or religion which the candidate's party claims to represent ( that is why there are so many MPs or MLAs with criminal backgrounds ).
Earlier caste was more important, but after the BJP's victory in the 2014 parliamentary elections religion has become more important, as religious polarisation of Indian society has gone up significantly and exponentially. 80% of the Indian population is Hindu, and though Hindus are normally divided on caste lines, they tend to unite when communal passions are aroused.
The Ram Janmabhoomi agitation, which inflamed religious feelings among Hindus, catapulted the BJP to power, and now the consecration by the Prime Minister of the Ram temple in Ayodhya on 22nd January has made most of the country 'Ram may' ( i.e. infused with Ram ). One may oppose Modi, but how can one oppose Lord Ram ?
Apart from this, institutions like the Election Commission, the police etc, have largely been 'saffronised' in India, and will help the BJP.
So BJP victory in the forthcoming parliamentary elections, with a massive majority, is certain. The only question can be : how big will be this majority?
2. Pakistan
About 90% Pakistanis support former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is perceived as honest, and he has been bravely fighting against the fascist forces in Pakistan, even from inside jail, where he is incarcerated since early August last year.
However, the Pakistan army generals, who are the real rulers of Pakistan, are determined, by hook or crook, not to allow him to come back to power again. Through the servile Pakistan judiciary they deprived Imran Khan's PTI party of its symbol, and now have got him sentenced to 10 years imprisonment, after a kangaroo trial in jail.
Though Nawaz Sharif is hated in Pakistan, the army is determined to install him as Prime Minister, after a sham and rigged election on 8th February. And since power flows from the barrel of a gun, the army will no doubt succeed in the immediate future. But what is likely to happen thereafter has been mentioned in the articles below :
Dark days are ahead for both countries.
(Justice Katju is a retired judge of the Supreme Court of India. These are his personal views.)
