The Political Arithmetic Behind Mahagathbandhan’s Rise
- Economic Promises That Defy Fiscal Reality
- The Ghost of Jungle Raj Past
- A Coalition Hungry for Power and Perks
- Bihar’s Youth and the Brewing Crisis
- Can Tejashwi Control the Storm?
Former Supreme Court Judge Justice Markandey Katju predicts a return of “jungle raj” in Bihar, drawing parallels to the Lalu Prasad Yadav era. He analyses caste equations, political promises, and the economic impracticalities that could destabilize the state under a Mahagathbandhan-led government.
Jungle Raj is coming in Bihar
By Justice Markandey Katju
It seems to me evident that jungle raj is coming to Bihar, as it prevailed when Lalu Yadav was the Chief Minister. Let me give my reasons.
To my mind, it is almost certain that Tejashwi Yadav will become the next Chief Minister of Bihar, heading a Mahagathbandhan ministry.
This is firstly because of the 'MY' ( Muslim Yadav ) factor. Muslims are 17.7% of the population of Bihar, and Yadavs are 14.3%. These two communities will solidly vote for the Mahagathbandhan, and this puts 32% of the votes safely in the Mahagathbandhan bag.
Secondly, the Mahagathbandhan has cleverly announced Mukesh Sahani, a prominent person of the EBW or Extra Backwards Castes (who are 36% of Bihar's population) as its Dy CM designate. Mukesh belongs to the 'mallah' (fisherman) caste. So a section of the EBW will also vote for the Mahagathbandhan.
And thirdly, there is the anti-establishment factor working against the present Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has been the CM for almost 20 years, and has done almost nothing to resolve the massive economic problems of Bihar, (particularly unemployment due to lack of jobs, which has made many Biharis flee to other states seeking a livelihood), but instead has been constantly and shamelessly changing his allies to remain the CM, like a trapeze artist in a circus, or an acrobat.
However, the question is what will happen after 14th November (the date when the election results are declared) when Tejashwi becomes the CM?
In its Manifesto announced in a press conference, the Mahagathbandhan has made 25 promises, the principal one being that it will provide a government job to one member of every family in Bihar.
But where will the money for this come from? There are about 2.75 crore families in Bihar, and it is estimated that implementing this promise alone will entail an expenditure of Rs 6 lakh crores (some estimate it as 9 lakh crores) annually.
But Bihar’s budget for the year 2025-2026 showed expenditure of only Rs 3.17 lakh crore. So fulfilling this demand alone will mean that all the state government’s expenditure will be on meeting this demand alone, and still it will not be met (what to say of the other 24 promises in the Manifesto like giving Rs 30,000 per year to every woman in Bihar, pensions, insurance, etc.)
Moreover, jobs cannot be created artificially like this; otherwise, the government may as well announce that it will give Rs 10,000 pm to every person who is willing to sweep the streets in cities or rural paths in Bihar. Jobs are created when there is significant growth in the economy i.e. increased industrialisation.
Tejashwi said he will get numerous factories set up in Bihar to give employment. But which businessman will invest in a state so disturbed by political and social strife ?
To this, Tejaswi's response was that maintenance of law and order will be among his top priorities once he becomes the CM. That may be his own wishful thinking, but what he forgets is that a large number of his party members and supporters are lawless people who care two hoots for law and order. Once he becomes the CM, they will think that now that their party is in power, they have the right to extort money from the public, loot the public coffers, and commit every kind of hooliganism, which they were doing during Lalu Yadav's jungle raj rule in the 1990s ( and again from 2000-2005 when his wife Rabri Devi was the ostensible CM ).
The first thing which will happen when the Mahagathbandhan comes to power will be a scramble for portfolios, each leader of a party within the coalition trying to get the most lucrative ones.
Thereafter, the smaller fries in the coalition will also demand a pound of the flesh. After all, they will think that having worked for the Mahagathbandhan's success, they should be suitably rewarded, if not by getting a ministry, then at least by getting a high post in some public corporation or in the numerous local bodies like municipal corporations, zila panchayats, etc, where they can make money.
But the real storm will come when the Bihari youth start demanding jobs, as was promised in the Mahagathbandhan Manifesto. Of course, the Manifesto said that the scheme of providing one job to a member of every family will be implemented only after 20 months. But who is prepared to wait for 20 months? One's stomach has to be filled now, not after 20 months. So the unemployed youth will start resorting to crimes like extortion, kidnapping, and robbery (as the SA thugs did when Hitler became Chancellor of Germany in January 1933 ). Just as the police in Germany turned a Nelson's eye to the hooliganism of the SA thugs, so will the Bihar police when the Mahagathbandhan supporters and youthful goondas will be on the rampage. After all, the policeman's first priority is to feed his family, and for that, he will not risk losing his job just to maintain law and order.
If Tejashwi tries to stop all this, he will be like King Canute trying to stop the waves.
Interesting days are ahead in Bihar !
(Justice Katju is a retired judge of the Supreme Court of India. These are his personal views.)
