Amid Israel’s strikes on Lebanon and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, questions arise over whether the US–Iran ceasefire can hold beyond two weeks.
Will the ceasefire hold?
By Justice Markandey Katju
In a recent article, I said that the 2-week ceasefire agreed upon by the United States and Iran will continue beyond 2 weeks for many months or years ( though not forever )
In view of yesterday's strike by Israel on Lebanon, and the consequential closure by the Iranians of the Strait of Hormuz, many people may say that my prediction was wrong. But one must delve deeper into the matter to understand the truth.
As I explained in my article, President Donald Trump is presently sandwiched between two pressures, one from above and the other from below.
The pressure from above is from the US arms manufacturers, who are presently the dominant section of the US big business class, which really rules America. These want the war to continue, since that generates demand for more weapons, which results in continuing profits.
On the other hand, the pressure from below is from the American public, which is feeling the adverse economic consequences of the war ( higher gas prices, and inevitable rise in taxes and the cost of living, etc if the war drags on).
To appease the latter, Trump agreed to a 2 week ceasefire. But this has obviously displeased the former, who want the war to continue, and must have conveyed their feelings to Trump in no uncertain terms.
So what could poor Trump do, when the two pressures are totally contradictory ?
My guess is that he and his advisers decided on the following course of action : order Israel to bomb Lebanon.
Israel is really a loyal surrogate and acolyte of America, and will do whatever the American government orders it to do. It is totally false to think ( as many do ) that it can take any important decision without US consent.
Israel was artificially created by the Western powers in 1948 because a huge amount of oil was discovered in the Middle East in the first half of the 20th century, which was needed by western industry. To ensure the safe oil supply from the middle east to the Western countries, a military garrison and armed outpost was needed in the region, which garrison is the State of Israel.
Almost all Israel's heavy weapons and much of its other needs are supplied to it by western countries, particularly the USA, and so Israel cannot survive for long without US help.
The Israelis have thus bombed Lebanon, even after the declaration of the ceasefire, killing over 254 people including women and children, as they were ordered to do by the US Government. This way the war could continue, as the US arms manufacturers wanted.
At the same time, the US government could wash its hands off this latest outrage, like Pontius Pilate, saying it had no hand in this attack on Lebanon, as it was a unilateral act by the Israelis, without the knowledge of the US government, thinking this statement may pacify the American public.
But no one will be befooled or pacified. The Iranians have quickly closed the Strait of Hormuz, saying it will remain closed until attacks on Lebanon stop
What will happen now? It is difficult to predict with certainty, but my guess is that Trump will be forced to tell the Israelis to stop their attacks, as American public opinion will not tolerate prolongation of this unjustified, unprovoked, and unpopular war.
(Justice Markandey Katju is a former Judge of the Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman of the Press Council of India. The views expressed are his own.)
