Justice Markandey Katju: Why CJP May Fade While BJP Continues to Expand in India
CJP vs BJP: Justice Markandey Katju's Analysis of India's Political Future and Youth UnrestWill CJP Survive? Justice Markandey Katju Examines India's Unemployment Crisis and BJP's Political Rise
Description
Former Supreme Court judge Justice Markandey Katju compares the future of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), arguing that youth protests alone cannot solve unemployment and corruption while examining the political, economic and historical factors shaping India's electoral landscape. Read this detailed opinion analysis.
A study in contrast: the future of CJP and BJP
By Justice Markandey KatjuIf we contemplate the future of the newly formed Cockroach Janta Party ( CJP ), which has created a hue and cry in India by its protests at Jantar Mantar, Delhi, with the future of the Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP ), there is, to my mind, a sharp contrast.
I believe that while the former will sooner or later die out, the latter's growth is unstoppable, as long as the present Constitutional system exists. Let me explain :
1. The future of the CJP
The CJP is a product of the frustration of the Indian youth, who are seeing the looming spectre of unemployment, and are angry over paper leaks .But mere emotions cannot solve these problems. The CJP is demanding resignation of the Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan because of paper leaks. But paper leaks are due to massive corruption in India, in all spheres, not just paper leaks, and so they will not stop by mere replacement of Dharmendra Pradhan by another person as Education Minister. They will continue as long as there is massive corruption in India.
And corruption will not stop as long as the present system survives, as the Anna Hazare movement of 2011 against corruption proved. The movement gathered hundreds of thousands of supporters ( as the present CJP movement has done ), but later fizzled out, with no effect in the corruption in india ( some say it has increased since then ).
As for unemployment, it has reached a record level in India. 12 million youth are entering the Indian job market every year. But less than half a million jobs are created in the organized sector of the Indian economy. So where do the remaining 11 1/2 million go ? They become hawkers, street vendors, bouncers, stringers, criminals, beggars, suicides etc. and many girls become prostitutes.
If a single class 4 ( peon's ) job is advertised by the govt there are often thousands of applicants, some even having Ph.D. M.Sc MBA or engineering degrees--all begging for a chaprasi's job. When the army holds a recruitment, there are hordes of applicants, often resulting in riots..
But the problem of unemployment cannot be solved by preventing paper leaks.
I have said before, paper leaks cannot be stopped because of massive corruption in India. But assuming it is stopped, that will only result in meritorious persons getting jobs instead of non meritorious ones. But how will that increase the total number of jobs available ? It will not.
Unemployment can only be abolished if the economy is rapidly expanding, which creates millions of jobs. But the Indian economy has been stagnant for a long time ( if not in recession ), and can only expand in another system.
The Congress-led UPA government introduced the MGNREGA scheme, by a Parliamentary Act in 2006, to guarantee 100 days of paid work to one member of every family in India.
I submit that this whole MGNREGA scheme was a hoax, an artifice, skulduggery, creating illusions and fantasies, and it led to massive corruption. It was built on a false premise and a total lack of knowledge of economics. Jobs cannot be created artificially like this; otherwise, the government may as well announce that it will give Rs 10,000 per month to every person in India who is willing to sweep the streets in cities or rural paths in the country.
Jobs are created when there is rapid growth in the economy, i.e., rapidly increased industrialization.
But for an increase in industrialization, there has to be a rise in the purchasing power of the masses, for after all the goods produced must be sold. But how can they be sold if the people are too poor and lack purchasing power?
So the problem is not how to increase production (that can easily be done, as we have a huge pool of engineers, technicians, and scientists, and immense natural resources), but how to raise the purchasing power of the Indian masses.
In 1914, Henry Ford of America raised the wages of his workers (in the plant manufacturing his Model T cars) from $2.25 to $5 per day. That was, of course, done to stabilize his workforce, but it did raise the purchasing power of the American masses, as other American manufacturers were compelled to do the same. However, it is unlikely that Indian businessmen will do likewise.
In the Soviet Union, rapid industrialization began in 1928 after the adoption of the First Five Year Plan. The methodology adopted by the Soviet leaders was broadly this : the government fixed the prices of all commodities and every two years or so lowered them by 5–10 percent, and sometimes wages were also increased by 5–10 percent. Thus, even with the same wage, the worker could now buy more goods, as prices had been reduced. In this way, the purchasing power of the Russian masses was increased by state action, and thus the domestic market steadily expanded.
Simultaneously, production was also stepped up, and the increased production could be sold in the domestic market, as people had more purchasing power. This process went on steadily after 1928, resulting in the rapid expansion of the Soviet economy and the creation of millions of jobs, wiping out unemployment.
This took place at the time of the Wall Street slump of 1929, which was followed by the Great Depression in America and most of Europe, with thousands of factories closing down and millions becoming unemployed.
This is not to say that India must adopt the same technique as the Soviet Union for raising the purchasing power of the masses. The point is that this can only be done by state action, not through private enterprise. India has a huge population of 1.43 billion people, and if their purchasing power is increased, there will be a huge domestic market for buying the goods produced by increased production ( reliance on foreign markets is very precarious, as it can be cut off by other countries, or there can be recession in the foreign country, so for stability we have to mainly rely on the domestic market ).
This, however, can only be done in another political system, not the present one that we have in India. What that system can be, which can raise the purchasing power of the masses and grow the economy rapidly, is for our patriotic thinkers to find out.
The CJP leaders like Abhijeet Dipke and others do not know all this, and are only taking the Indian youth for a ride, like a Pied Piper of Hamelin leading children to disaster. The time will however come, soon or later, when the Indian youth will see through this charade, guile, and masquerade, and then the CJP will disappear
Partition of India in 1947 on the basis of the bogus 2 nation theory was a British swindle, whose purpose was to keep Hindus & Muslims fighting each other, so that united India should remain weak and backward, and not emerge as a modern industrial giant, like China, for which it has all the potential.
Partition was the greatest tragedy for India in its 5000-year-old known history. Though its main proponent was Jinnah, ultimately the Congress leaders like Gandhi, Nehru and Patel agreed to it, so they are also culpable.
Once India was partitioned on the basis of the 2 nation theory, and Pakistan declared an Islamic state, it logically followed that India should be declared a Hindu state ( as 80% of its population is Hindu ). That it was not so declared, and instead declared a secular state, was because Congress leaders had an eye on the large Muslim vote bank in India.
For instance, UP, the largest state in India, has about 18% Muslims. To win elections, one requires about 31-32% votes ( one does not need 50% because others are divided ). So 18% is a big chunk, and when combined with another chunk ( e.g. of Dalits) it is a winning combination.
So for several decades after Partition in 1947, Congress kept winning elections in India. But this winning spree could not continue forever. In 2014, the BJP, which does not rely on Muslim votes, got a majority in Parliament, and came to power. It has remained in power in the Centre since then, and has even expanded into other states where it was earlier not in power, e.g.West Bengal, which was known as a bastion of secularism, and Odisha. I foresee its capturing power in south Indian states too, which has about 90% Hindus, in the near future.
All this has its roots in the Partition of India in 1947 on the basis of the bogus 2 nation theory, which ultimately was agreed to by Congress leaders too, and hence they too are criminals.
Today, polarization has increased exponentially in Indian society. More and more Hindus have become BJP supporters. The BJP has played its cards excellently, with 'Hindutva' as its slogan, while the opposition parties are in doldrums.
Those who say that the Indian economy is going downhill, that unemployment and prices have soared to record levels, and therefore the Indian people are getting increasingly disenchanted of the BJP, forget that these issues are irrelevant to over 90% of Indian voters. When voting, they do not see the condition of the economy. They do not see merit of the candidate, whether he is a good man or bad, educated or uneducated, etc. They do not keep in mind rise in prices or rise in unemployment, but only see the caste or religion of the candidate ( or the caste or religion which his party claims to represent ).
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, almost half the MPs elected have criminal backgrounds.
What does this prove? It proves that when 90% of our voters go to vote, they do not see whether the candidate is a criminal or not. They only see his caste and religion.
Earlier, caste was more important in elections, but in view of the increased religious polarization since 2014, when the BJP came to power, religion has become more important. The Hindu upper castes, who are very influential, are solidly with the BJP, and even large sections of OBCs ( except Yadavs ) and Dalits ( except Jatavs ) have gone over to them.
Apart from that, state institutions and many educational institutions have been largely 'saffronized', in particular the Election Commission of India, which is in charge of holding elections in India.
So the BJP is bound to grow in the years to come.
(Justice Markandey Katju is a former judge of the Supreme Court of India and a former Chairman of the Press Council of India. The views expressed are his own.)
Summary
This opinion article by former Supreme Court judge Justice Markandey Katju explores:
The emergence of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) amid youth protests over unemployment and examination paper leaks.
Structural causes of unemployment, corruption and economic stagnation.
Historical references including the Anna Hazare movement, MGNREGA, Henry Ford's wage policy and Soviet industrialization.
The political consequences of Partition and religious polarization.
Why the author believes the BJP may continue expanding despite economic challenges.
A broader discussion on electoral behaviour, governance and India's political future.
The article represents the author's interpretation and analysis rather than established fact.
Jobs are created when there is rapid growth in the economy, i.e., rapidly increased industrialization.
But for an increase in industrialization, there has to be a rise in the purchasing power of the masses, for after all the goods produced must be sold. But how can they be sold if the people are too poor and lack purchasing power?
So the problem is not how to increase production (that can easily be done, as we have a huge pool of engineers, technicians, and scientists, and immense natural resources), but how to raise the purchasing power of the Indian masses.
In 1914, Henry Ford of America raised the wages of his workers (in the plant manufacturing his Model T cars) from $2.25 to $5 per day. That was, of course, done to stabilize his workforce, but it did raise the purchasing power of the American masses, as other American manufacturers were compelled to do the same. However, it is unlikely that Indian businessmen will do likewise.
In the Soviet Union, rapid industrialization began in 1928 after the adoption of the First Five Year Plan. The methodology adopted by the Soviet leaders was broadly this : the government fixed the prices of all commodities and every two years or so lowered them by 5–10 percent, and sometimes wages were also increased by 5–10 percent. Thus, even with the same wage, the worker could now buy more goods, as prices had been reduced. In this way, the purchasing power of the Russian masses was increased by state action, and thus the domestic market steadily expanded.
Simultaneously, production was also stepped up, and the increased production could be sold in the domestic market, as people had more purchasing power. This process went on steadily after 1928, resulting in the rapid expansion of the Soviet economy and the creation of millions of jobs, wiping out unemployment.
This took place at the time of the Wall Street slump of 1929, which was followed by the Great Depression in America and most of Europe, with thousands of factories closing down and millions becoming unemployed.
This is not to say that India must adopt the same technique as the Soviet Union for raising the purchasing power of the masses. The point is that this can only be done by state action, not through private enterprise. India has a huge population of 1.43 billion people, and if their purchasing power is increased, there will be a huge domestic market for buying the goods produced by increased production ( reliance on foreign markets is very precarious, as it can be cut off by other countries, or there can be recession in the foreign country, so for stability we have to mainly rely on the domestic market ).
This, however, can only be done in another political system, not the present one that we have in India. What that system can be, which can raise the purchasing power of the masses and grow the economy rapidly, is for our patriotic thinkers to find out.
The CJP leaders like Abhijeet Dipke and others do not know all this, and are only taking the Indian youth for a ride, like a Pied Piper of Hamelin leading children to disaster. The time will however come, soon or later, when the Indian youth will see through this charade, guile, and masquerade, and then the CJP will disappear
2. The future of the BJP
Many people say that the BJP's graph will go down in the future, as more and more Indians will get disillusioned with the party as it has failed to solve the huge socio-economic problems of India. I beg to differ. In my opinion, the BJP will keep growing in India, and even south Indian states will come under its rule and sway soon. These are my reasons :Partition of India in 1947 on the basis of the bogus 2 nation theory was a British swindle, whose purpose was to keep Hindus & Muslims fighting each other, so that united India should remain weak and backward, and not emerge as a modern industrial giant, like China, for which it has all the potential.
Partition was the greatest tragedy for India in its 5000-year-old known history. Though its main proponent was Jinnah, ultimately the Congress leaders like Gandhi, Nehru and Patel agreed to it, so they are also culpable.
Once India was partitioned on the basis of the 2 nation theory, and Pakistan declared an Islamic state, it logically followed that India should be declared a Hindu state ( as 80% of its population is Hindu ). That it was not so declared, and instead declared a secular state, was because Congress leaders had an eye on the large Muslim vote bank in India.
For instance, UP, the largest state in India, has about 18% Muslims. To win elections, one requires about 31-32% votes ( one does not need 50% because others are divided ). So 18% is a big chunk, and when combined with another chunk ( e.g. of Dalits) it is a winning combination.
So for several decades after Partition in 1947, Congress kept winning elections in India. But this winning spree could not continue forever. In 2014, the BJP, which does not rely on Muslim votes, got a majority in Parliament, and came to power. It has remained in power in the Centre since then, and has even expanded into other states where it was earlier not in power, e.g.West Bengal, which was known as a bastion of secularism, and Odisha. I foresee its capturing power in south Indian states too, which has about 90% Hindus, in the near future.
All this has its roots in the Partition of India in 1947 on the basis of the bogus 2 nation theory, which ultimately was agreed to by Congress leaders too, and hence they too are criminals.
Today, polarization has increased exponentially in Indian society. More and more Hindus have become BJP supporters. The BJP has played its cards excellently, with 'Hindutva' as its slogan, while the opposition parties are in doldrums.
Those who say that the Indian economy is going downhill, that unemployment and prices have soared to record levels, and therefore the Indian people are getting increasingly disenchanted of the BJP, forget that these issues are irrelevant to over 90% of Indian voters. When voting, they do not see the condition of the economy. They do not see merit of the candidate, whether he is a good man or bad, educated or uneducated, etc. They do not keep in mind rise in prices or rise in unemployment, but only see the caste or religion of the candidate ( or the caste or religion which his party claims to represent ).
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, almost half the MPs elected have criminal backgrounds.
What does this prove? It proves that when 90% of our voters go to vote, they do not see whether the candidate is a criminal or not. They only see his caste and religion.
Earlier, caste was more important in elections, but in view of the increased religious polarization since 2014, when the BJP came to power, religion has become more important. The Hindu upper castes, who are very influential, are solidly with the BJP, and even large sections of OBCs ( except Yadavs ) and Dalits ( except Jatavs ) have gone over to them.
Apart from that, state institutions and many educational institutions have been largely 'saffronized', in particular the Election Commission of India, which is in charge of holding elections in India.
So the BJP is bound to grow in the years to come.
(Justice Markandey Katju is a former judge of the Supreme Court of India and a former Chairman of the Press Council of India. The views expressed are his own.)
Summary
This opinion article by former Supreme Court judge Justice Markandey Katju explores:
The emergence of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) amid youth protests over unemployment and examination paper leaks.
Structural causes of unemployment, corruption and economic stagnation.
Historical references including the Anna Hazare movement, MGNREGA, Henry Ford's wage policy and Soviet industrialization.
The political consequences of Partition and religious polarization.
Why the author believes the BJP may continue expanding despite economic challenges.
A broader discussion on electoral behaviour, governance and India's political future.
The article represents the author's interpretation and analysis rather than established fact.
