Global Warming Could Hit 3.1°C by 2100: UNEP's Emission Gap Report 2024

Amalendu Upadhyaya
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What is UNEP’s Emission Gap Report 2024?

The Climate Reality: Where We Are and Where We’re Heading


UNEP's Emission Gap Report 2024 warns that global warming could reach a catastrophic 3.1°C by the end of this century. Nations must drastically increase their commitments to cutting greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the 1.5°C goal. Learn about the urgent measures needed and the highlights from this report.
Global Warming Could Hit 3.1°C by 2100: UNEP's Emission Gap Report 2024
Global Warming Could Hit 3.1°C by 2100: UNEP's Emission Gap Report 2024


We Are Currently Heading For a Global Warming Of 3.1°C.: Emission Gap Report 2024

By Dr. Seema Javed

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! shows that Climate crunch time is here. Nations must show a massive increase in ambition in their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and rapid delivery to achieve them. Nations must collectively commit to cutting 42 per cent of annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – and back this up with rapid action – or the Paris Agreement.

Otherwise, 1.5°C goal will be gone in a few years, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report.

In annual terms, we need to reduce 7.5 per cent of emissions every year until 2035. A figure that will grow with each year of inaction. Current NDCs put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.6-2.8°C this century. The policies currently in place are insufficient to meet even these NDCs. If nothing changes, we are heading for a temperature rise of 3.1°C.

Global Warming Projections and Urgent Action Required


The report also looks at what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28 per cent by 2030 and 37 per cent from 2019 levels by 2035 – the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are targets and actions each country which is a signatory to the Paris Agreement has committed to in response to the climate crisis.

The NDCs are part of the Paris Agreement, which requires countries to make their best efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Understanding the Emissions Gap Report: Purpose and Findings


At the launch of UNEP's Emission Gap Report UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said that -"Some parts of the world are burning. Some parts of the world are drowning. People everywhere are struggling to cope and, in many cases, to survive – particularly the poorest and most vulnerable. Against this backdrop of tragedy and rising climate anxiety, new climate pledges are due for submission early next year." He further said that -"Global Warming is one of the greatest risks of the modern era and We may not make it. But the only certain path to failure is not trying."

Key Highlights from UNEP's Emission Gap Report 2024-


It is still technically possible to meet the 1.5°C goal, but only with a G20-led massive global mobilization to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, starting today

Continuation of current policies will lead to a catastrophic temperature rise of up to 3.1°C

Current commitments for 2030 are not being met; even if they are met, temperature rise would only be limited to 2.6-2.8°C

The 2.6°C scenario is based on fully implementing current unconditional and conditional NDCs. Implementing only current unconditional NDCs would lead to 2.8°C of warming. Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming. Under these scenarios – which all operate on a probability of over 66 per cent – temperatures would continue to rise into the next century. Adding additional net-zero pledges to full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs could limit global warming to 1.9°C, but there is currently low confidence in the implementation of these net-zero pledges.

“The emissions gap is not an abstract notion,” said António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, in a video message on the report. “There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters. Around the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods.

(Writer is Environmentalist &A communications professional in Science, climate and energy.)

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