US–Iran War Enters a New Phase: Strategic Deadlock, Rising Oil Prices, and Global Risks
The Next Phase of the US–Iran Conflict and the Role of the Military-Industrial Complex
The Original Strategic Objective Behind the US–Israel Attack on Iran
Why the Plan for a Quick Regime Change Failed
Growing National Unity Inside Iran Amid the War
Missile and Drone Retaliation Against US and Israeli Targets
A War Turning into a Strategic Stalemate
Former Supreme Court judge Justice Markandey Katju analyses the next stage of the US–Iran war, explaining why the conflict has become a stalemate and how geopolitics, the military-industrial complex, and global oil markets could prolong the war.
The next stage in the US-Iran war
By Justice Markandey Katju
The initial aim of the US-Israeli war against Iran, was to execute a quick in-and-out strike and install a pro-American regime, as in Venezuela. This has clearly not succeeded ( despite the killing of Ayotallah Khameini and many others ). The war is now in its 9th day, and no one can predict when it will end.
In fact, the war has united the Iranian people as never before, as stated by the distinguished Prof Marandi of Tehran University. The Iranians are retaliating with missile and drone strikes on Israel, US bases in the middle east, the US Riyadh Embassy, the Aramco Refinery in Saudi Arabia, etc, and are refusing to surrender
I have expressed my views on the conflict in the articles below :
I have said that a Walter Cronkite is needed to call for an end to this war, which has become a stalemate, like the war in Vietnam, and is becoming more and more barbaric with each passing day ( 165 Iranian school girls were killed in a single US airstrike, reminiscent of the My Lai massacre in Vietnam in 1968 ) . But I doubt that anyone in the largely servile US media will issue such a call.
Reason, and America's own interest, demands that the war should end now, because (1) wars are expensive affairs, and a long war can only be sustained by increasing taxation on the American people, something which the American public will strongly oppose (2) wars have unpredictable outcomes. Napoleon and Hitler invaded Russia expecting quick victories, but the war dragged on, ultimately leading to their downfall. (3) if the war is prolonged oil prices will go up the roof, causing instability everywhere, including in America.
But despite all, this in my opinion the present war will not end soon, for the following reasons :
1. The real rulers of America is its big business class, and this class is divided into two groups (a) the arms manufacturers, and (b) the rest. Often, as at the present juncture, the dominant of these two groups is the former.
The arms manufacturers thrive on wars, because wars increase the demand for weapons, which in turn increases their profits. If there is peace, demand for weapons goes down, and this reduces their profits
In his Farewell Speech on 17.1.1961, US President Eisenhower( who had been the President from 1952-60 ) warned against the "unwarranted influence" of a newly formed "military-industrial complex". As a former five-star general, he cautioned that the permanent arms industry and massive military establishment could threaten democratic processes and liberties, urging an "alert and knowledgeable citizenry" to balance security with freedom.
Despite this warning, the arms industry, owned by private individuals, has grown over the years in USA by leaps and bounds, ensuring huge profits to the arms manufacturers. These have a strong iron hold on US politicians, including the President, Congressmen, and the state officials. Through the media, it also seeks to control public opinion.
Hence, any attempt to stop the current war will be fiercely opposed by the powerful arms lobby.
2. The US government's national debt is a staggering 38 trillion dollars, on which the interest payment alone is in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
For the last 40 years or so US government expenditure ( much of it on its military ) has far exceeded its revenue ( through taxes, etc ).
In the article below, I have explained that the balance was being covered by issuing U.S. Treasury bonds, which is now no longer possible as countries and institutions are refusing to buy them. The way out is either (1) reducing government expenditure or increasing taxes, or (2) stealing the resources of other countries, as was done in the era of colonialism. Since the former alternative is not possible ( the arms manufacturers will stoutly oppose cut in defence expenditure, and the American public will strongly oppose an increase in taxes ), only the latter alternative is feasible ( according to those who rule America ). The recent attack on Venezuela was evidently to seize its oil, as is the current attack on Iran
3. The mid-term US Congress elections are due in November this year. The popularity of Republicans is dwindling, according to recent opinion polls in America
In this situation, President Trump may resort to desperate military measures to seek a victory ( as President Johnson had done in the Vietnam War) by employing napalm, chemical warfare, and possibly even nuclear weapons.
Dark days are ahead, and America seems to be in for the long haul, as in Vietnam, with no light at the end of the tunnel, and with horrors ahead.
Perhaps America will end this war when a large number of body bags containing dead bodies of US military personnel start coming back to the United States, but that is far ahead.
(Justice Markandey Katju is a former Judge of the Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman of the Press Council of India. The views expressed are his own.)
