Historical Context: From Colonialism to Neo-Colonial Geopolitics
- Why Iran Remains an Exception in the Middle East Power Structure
- Ceasefire Extension vs Continued Blockade: Signals from Donald Trump
- Military Build-Up and Possibility of Ground Invasion
- Regional and Global Implications of a possible US–Iran War
As tensions persist between the United States and Iran, experts warn of a possible large-scale invasion despite a temporary ceasefire extension. With continued blockade measures and military build-up in the Middle East, the situation raises concerns about a prolonged and destabilizing conflict with global implications.
A massive invasion of Iran is imminent
By Justice Markandey Katju
The 2-week ceasefire between the USA and Iran has ended today, 22nd April, but President Trump has extended it ( though declaring that the US blockade of Iran will continue )
Some people think that the US-Iran war has now ended, but they are totally mistaken. In my opinion a massive invasion of Iran is imminent. Let me explain.
Before the Second World War the imperialist-colonial era prevailed in much of the world, e.g. Britain had India etc as its colonies, France had Algeria and Vietnam, Japan had Korea and parts of China, etc.
Colonial rule was direct rule, e.g. the British had their Viceroy, army, civil servants etc stationed in India.
After the Second World War, which ended in 1945, the imperialists realised that they could not continue to govern their colonies in the old way, since a spirit of nationalism had arisen in the peoples of the colonies. This resulted in independence struggles, which in some colonies even took on the form of armed guerrilla warfare e.g. in China, Vietnam and Algeria.
Hence after the Second World War a new world order was cunningly created by the imperialists, in which direct overt colonial rule was replaced by indirect covert neo-colonial rule.
Under neo-colonial rule, the imperialists withdrew their armies and officials from their colony, and gave it formal independence. However, to retain their economic interests, before giving 'independence', the imperialists carefully installed some local people in the erstwhile colonies as their loyal puppets, to ensure that their economic interests would not be jeopardized and suffer.
This new system meant that there would be a change in form ( the colony becoming formally independent ), but no change in substance ( the erstwhile colony remaining a place of investment, a market, a source of cheap raw materials etc for the erstwhile imperialist power, as in a colony ).
For instance, the governments of all middle eastern countries, while being formally independent, are in fact Western ( particularly US ) puppets, who loyally allow the Westerners to loot their natural resources. For example, Saudi Arabia is ruled by its royal family, who are loyal US puppets who allow the huge oil reserves of their country to be taken away by Westerners.
Similarly, Latin American countries are US neo-colonies, since while being formally independent, their governments are all US puppets.
In some of such neo-colonies, their governments tried to become really independent, but they were crushed, e.g. Latin American countries like Chile, Guatemala, Granada, etc and lately Venezuela, whose governments were crushed by US forces and a regime change effected, when they tried to assert their independence. Similarly, in the middle east, Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Bashar Asad of Syria were deposed by the Americans when they tried to assert their independence.
The only exception to the neo-colonial system established by the big powers after the Second World War ( apart from China and Cuba, which had revolutions ) was Iran.
Iran too was a Western neo-colony till 1979, its ruler since 1941 Shah Reza Pallavi being a US puppet. The attempt by its Prime Minister Mossadegh to assert independence by nationalizing Iran's oil industry ( which was under Western control ) was crushed by a US-UK coup in 1953, and the Shah's brutal autocratic rule restored.
However, a massive popular agitation against the despotic Shah began in the 1970s, under the leadership of Ayatollah Khomeini, which culminated in overthrow of the Shah in 1979. Since then Iran has been really independent, and is not a neo-colony or puppet of the West, and in this sense it is unique in the middle east.
The invasion of Iran on 28th February 2026 by US-Israeli forces was precisely for this reason. The Westerners ( particularly the Americans ) feared that if Iran is allowed to remain truly independent and not a neo-colony it will inspire the people of other underdeveloped countries ( particularly in the middle east ) to also start fighting for their real independence, by overthrowing their puppet rulers. This would upset the whole world order created after the end of the Second World War, and would adversely affect the economic interests of the Western powers.
Hence since 1979 Western powers ( particularly the US ) have been trying to subvert the independence of Iran by various means e.g. imposing numerous stringent sanctions ( such as sale of Iranian oil to many countries including India ), covertly inciting and arming anti-government protestors against the Iranian government, etc, all aimed at bringing about a regime change in Iran, and installing a puppet pro-US regime there.
Since these efforts failed, an attack on Iran by US-Israeli forces was made for 12 days in June 2025
This too failed, but crushing the Iran regime was essential for the US and many Western powers, otherwise peoples of other underdeveloped countries, too, would be inspired by the example of the brave fight of the Iranians, and will start fighting for their own independence, and throwing off the yolk of their neo-colonial rulers.
Hence another attack by US-Israeli forces was made on 28th February 2026 aimed at bringing about a quick regime change in Iran. This again failed, with the Iranians hitting back at Israel and US bases in middle eastern countries with missiles and drones. After 40 days of fighting, a 2 weeks ceasefire was declared on 8th April, which ends today. Trump has no doubt declared an extension of the ceasefire, but his condition that the US blockade of Iran will continue discloses his intention, because a blockade is a form of warfare.
My own opinion is that after some time a massive invasion of Iran by US-Israeli forces will begin, and this time the US will use ground troops as well, as indicated by the build up of US troops in the middle east. This is because mere use of air power cannot bring about a regime change, as all military historical experience proves.
The war which will now begin will be long drawn, and extremely brutal and cruel, like the Vietnam war. The Iranians are determined never to surrender, whatever the cost.
On the other hand, America is the most militarily powerful and technologically advanced nation in the world, and so will not easily accept losing face by admitting failure to achieve its goal.
Iranians, must now get ready for making tremendous sacrifices and facing terrible horrors, as the Vietnamese had to do in their long war against the Americans.
