Will things change after 4th June?
By Justice Markandey Katju
Most predictions in India are that after the results of the 2024 parliamentary elections are declared on 4th June the number of BJP seats in the Lok Sabha will be drastically reduced. Some believe they will be reduced from 303 seats at present to about 200-210 seats. Some even speculate it may be less than 200.
If that happens, either Modi will become a very weak Prime Minister, a shadow of the man with the 56” chest, heading a coalition government in which he will become dependent for survival on allies. The other alternative will be that a coalition INDIA government will come to power, with Rahul Gandhi heading it, but again as a weak PM dependent for survival on allies.
Will either of these coalition governments be able to solve the huge problems facing the country viz massive poverty, massive unemployment, appalling level of child malnutrition, skyrocketing prices of essential commodities, almost total lack of proper healthcare and good education for the masses, etc ? Not at all. These massive problems will continue as before, and in fact may get worse.
What will happen after 4th June will be a fierce struggle for lucrative portfolios, and constant squabbling thereafter, as it happened when the Janta Party ( which was really a coalition of parties ) came to power in 1977 in the elections following the Emergency.
All that the Janta Party did throughout its tenure was infighting among its constituent members, and instituting criminal cases against Indira Gandhi ( which in fact made her a martyr ). If the INDIA coalition comes to power we may witness a similar spectacle.
The test of every political activity and political system is one and only one : does it raise the standard of living of the people ? Does it give them better lives ? I submit that there will be no improvement in the people’s lives even after a new government as referred to above is formed. So the people of India, will say what Manthara said to Kaikeyi in the Ramayan “ Koi nrip hoye, hamein ka haani “ ( How does it matter to me who will be the king “.
Some say at least Muslims will benefit if BJP is ousted from power, since under BJP rule they are oppressed.. But the main problem of Muslims is the same as that of Hindus viz poverty, unemployment, child malnutrition, price rise, lack of healthcare etc. Will they be resolved by simply removing BJP from power ? Not at all.
It may be said that if BJP is ousted there will be no more lynching, bulldozing houses, or beating for not saying Jai Shri Ram for Muslims. That may be true, but how many Indian Muslims have been lynched or beaten for not saying Jai Shri Ram ? Just a handful. Compared to the total population of Indian Muslims of 200 million this is a minuscule number. The problems of the vast majority of Muslims are not these, but the same which afflict the vast majority of Hindus viz poverty, unemployment, price rise, etc. So it is not true that the problems of Indian Muslims will be solved by just removing the BJP from power.
I submit nothing substantial will change after 4th June.
(Justice Katju is a retired judge of the Supreme Court. These are his personal views.)
