Why America Cannot Win the War Against Iran: A Strategic Analysis
US-Iran War: Understanding Why Military Victory Over Iran Is Unlikely
The US-Iran Conflict Explained: Why This War May Become Another Vietnam
Why Americans Fail to Understand Iran: Lessons From the US-Iran War
US-Iran War and the Limits of American Power in the Middle East
Misreading Iran’s Political System and Leadership Structure
The Killing of the Supreme Leader: Why Regime Change Did Not Work
National Unity in Iran After the Attack
Understanding Shia Political Psychology and the Idea of Martyrdom
Lessons from Vietnam: Why Determined Societies Resist Superpowers
The Role of Russia and China in the US-Iran Conflict
Economic Costs and Domestic Opposition in the United States
Iran’s Missile and Drone Capabilities
A War of Attrition: Why the Conflict May Drag On
Can the US-Iran War End Without Negotiation?
An analysis of the US-Iran war explaining why America may struggle to achieve victory, examining Iran’s political structure, Shia resistance, and geopolitical support.
Why can't Americans realize they can't win this war ?
The US-Iran war has been going on for almost 2 weeks now, with no end in sight.
The initial plan of President Trump and his team was to effect a quick in-and-out strike, make a regime change, install a pro-US regime ( as in Venezuela ), and then quickly withdraw.
But this plan has backfired. Why ?
I submit it is because of a total lack of understanding by the Americans about Iran. Let me explain :
1. The US Government thought that by killing Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, and some generals and other officials on 28th February, the war would be over soon.
What they overlooked was that if one Ayatollah is eliminated, another will take his place. And if that one too is eliminated, yet another will take his place, and so on and on endlessly. This is because of Iran's Constitution, under which the Supreme Leader is elected by an Assembly of Experts
There are rumours that Ayatollah Mojtaba ( the son of the killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini, who was elected as the new Supreme Leader) has been injured by a US/Israeli air attack
Even assuming this is true, and even if he has been killed, how does it matter? Another supreme leader will be elected quickly to take his place.
So to think that killing the Ayatollah would end the war, was a total misconception. It was like Hitler's belief before he invaded the USSR in June 1941 '' We have only to kick the front door open, and the whole rotten structure will fall down ''.
2. The Americans thought that the people of Iran would come out on the streets after the killing of Ayatollah Khameini, and celebrate. Instead, what happened was that the people did come out on the streets, but it was in mourning for their dead, revered leader, and to condemn the Americans and Israelis. So the killing of Ayatollah Khameini was counterproductive for the Americans, as it has strongly united Iranians
3. Americans have no idea of Shia psychology ( 90-95% Iranian population is Shia ). Shia minds are instilled since childhood that death is preferable to surrender before a tyrant, and martyrdom is the crowning achievement for a man. The ideal of Shias is Imam Husain who along with his 72 followers were killed in Karbala by the army of the tyrant Yazid.
So to win victory, the Americans will have to kill all 93 million Iranians, because even if one of them remains alive, he will fight on.
Ho Chi Minh, the Vietnamese leader, told the Americans '' You can kill 10 of our people, while we kill only one of yours, yet we will win ''
So how does one fight people who are not afraid to die?
In contrast, Americans are comfort-loving ( aaraam pasand ), and don't like the idea of dying. In the Vietnam war, US soldiers, most of whom were forcibly and unwillingly drafted for 1 year, were much of the time calculating their DEROS ( date of eligible return from overseas )
4. Like the Vietnamese, the Iranians too are getting the help of China and Russia, which are powerful, highly industrialized nations, in many ways. This includes information to the Iranians from Russian and Chinese satellites about exact locations of potential targets for Iranian missile and drone strikes.
5. Wars are very expensive affairs, and if this war drags on, it can only be sustained by increasing taxes on the American people, a measure which will be strongly opposed by the people. Also, oil prices may go up the roof, and body bags containing dead US soldiers will keep coming back to America in increasing numbers regularly.
Protests and demonstrations have already started in America ( and in other countries ) against this war, and these are bound to increase exponentially as the war gets prolonged.
6. Iranians have a huge stockpile of missiles and drones, and even underground factories to manufacture them. So they have been hitting back at Israel and US bases and assets in the middle east. Hezbollah, Houthis, and others are probably helping the Iranians, and so would be many Iraqis ( 60-65% Iraq is Shia)
So this war has become a stalemate, an endless war of attrition, with no light at the end of the tunnel, as the eminent American journalist Walter Cronkite said in a telecast about the Vietnam war during the Tet offensive in February 1968
Iran will win this war because it is fighting for a just cause i.e. the right of all nations of self determination, and by simply refusing to surrender
When will Americans understand this ?
(Justice Markandey Katju is a former Judge of the Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman of the Press Council of India. The views expressed are his own.)
