Justice Markandey Katju's Analysis: Is a Large-Scale US-Israel Military Offensive Against Iran Inevitable?
- US-Iran Tensions: Justice Katju Explains Why He Expects a Major Military Escalation
- Opinion | Why the US-Iran Peace Process May Collapse, According to Justice Markandey Katju
Retired Supreme Court judge Justice Markandey Katju argues that diplomacy between the United States and Iran may fail, making a large-scale US-Israel military offensive increasingly likely. Read his opinion.
A massive attack on Iran is coming
By Justice Markandey Katju
I had earlier predicted that a massive attack by the US and Israeli military on Iran, including the use of ground troops, is inevitable
Recent developments, however, tended to indicate to many that a peace deal will be made. An MOU ( Memorandum of Understanding ) has been digitally signed between USA and Iran, and it was expected that a peace deal will be signed later on in Geneva on 19th June between the two parties after further negotiations.
However, now news is coming in that there have been massive protests by Iranians against the MOU, calling it a sell-out to America and Israel, and demanding the resignations of Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi and Speaker of the National Assembly Ghaliban, who have allegedly signed the MOU digitally, and some Iranians even demanding their deaths.
Perhaps Aragchi and Ghaliban had taken the consent of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khameini before signing the MOU ( though he has been silent about it ), but what they obviously did not take into account was Iranian public opinion. Iranians had already suffered for long because of US sanctions, etc and now they are incensed due to the indiscriminate bombing of Iran, which killed Ayatollah Ali Khameini and many of his family members and top officials, 168 school girls, hospitals, etc. Those Iranian officials who talk to Americans are therefore branded by many Iranians as being compromised.
The shabby treatment of the Iranian football team in the World Cup match against New Zealand in Los Angeles has further enraged Iranian public opinion.
On his part, U.S. President Trump said that his new ceasefire agreement with Iran was not final and he could resume the war against Iran if he is unsatisfied. He said at a G7 summit in France " It's a memorandum of understanding. And if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their heads ".
So it seems obvious that the MOU has gone up in smoke, and there will be no meeting in Geneva between the Americans and the Iranians.
In fact, the demands of the two sides were so wide apart and irreconciliable that it seems impossible to find a meeting point.
The Americans demand the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran announces it will never make a nuclear bomb, give up its enriched uranium, etc
The Iranians say that the Strait of Hormuz must remain under its control, that enriching uranium is its sovereign right, that sanctions must be lifted, and its frozen assets must be returned to it.
These demands are so diametrically opposite that no amount of talks can reach to any agreement.
Moreover, Israel says it will not be a party to any peace deal between the USA and Iran, and it continues to bomb Lebanon. Iran had always said that the end of Israeli attacks on Lebanon must be a part of the deal.
The US-Iran war has pushed oil and gas prices in America to four-year highs. That reignited inflation, wiping out Americans' pay rises for the past year. Consumer sentiment in America is at an all-time low.
Consequently, President Trump's presidential approval ratings have reached record lows. Following the conclusion of the first year of his second term, his approval ratings fell to an average ranging between 37% and 40% across various polls. The midterm US Congressional elections are due in November, and to increase his rating, Trump must do something drastic.
And that drastic thing, to my mind, can only be a massive attack and invasion of Iran, under the belief that America will win the war, and consequently, Trump's approval rating will shoot up quickly.
(Justice Katju is a retired judge of the Supreme Court of India and a former Chairman of the Press Council of India. These are his personal views.)
